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June 24, 2025
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Early economic analysis and embracing uncertainty

Authors
Henna Sharif
Claudia Rinciog, MSc

An early economic model is a tool used to estimate the likely cost-effectiveness of a new treatment when clinical and economic data are limited, helping support decisions during the early stages of treatment development. In this blog post, we will explore what early economic models are, why and when they are used, and the important role they play in evidence generation and strategic planning.

What are early economic models?

Early economic models prioritise early evidence generation, while their methods are refined iteratively as the evidence base grows to ensure ongoing validity. These models are intentionally designed to be flexible; they use limited data, reasonable assumptions and mathematical relationships to provide estimates of the costs and effectiveness of an intervention or technology where robust data are unavailable.

The role of early economic models

Early economic models play a vital role in health technology assessment (HTA), offering a range of uses uniquely suited to healthcare strategies and technologies, including:

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Why use early models?

In treatment development, market access strategy and treatment positioning are critical. Early economic models act as risk detectors, helping manufacturers identify potential downfalls before committing to further research and investment. They can help during:

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By supporting decisions and providing strategic guidance during these stages, early models serve an important role and demonstrate their value:

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Have a read through part two of this blog series, where we dive into how early models differ from advanced-stage models and share a success story involving an early model developed by our team.

If you’re interested in learning more about how early economic modelling can support your treatment development strategy, get in touch with us to discuss your specific needs.

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Health economic modelling
Health economic modelling